The Sino-Us Trade War Has Started, And Environmental Protection Policies Are Intensive

After multiple rounds of exchanges, the Sino-US trade war has entered a fever pitch

Step into the official firing of the Sino-US trade war in July:

On June 15, US President Donald Trump announced through the White House that he would impose 25% tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese exports to the US. Subsequently, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) released two lists of details, including a total of 1,102 products, worth $50 billion. Among them, List 1 includes 818 of the 1,333 products to be taxed, with a total value of $34 billion, released on April 6, and officially taxed on July 6; List 2 includes 284 products with a total value of $16 billion, including some chemical products and high-tech machinery products, and the specific date of the tax has not been announced.

On July 4, the relevant person in charge of the Office of the Tariff Commission of The State Council clarified the false reports of the previous Japanese news, saying that countermeasures will not be implemented before the United States.

On July 5, at the regular press conference of the Ministry of Commerce, the spokesperson again pointed out that out of the so-called 34 billion tax products list released by the US side, about 20 billion, accounting for about 59%, are products produced by foreign-funded enterprises in China. Among them, American companies occupy a considerable proportion. The tariffs imposed by the United States are a blow to the companies of the two countries, and at the same time, they are hurting the United States itself while hitting the global trade chain.

It can be seen that the tariff increase is imminent, and China once again emphasizes the disadvantages of this policy. Once the tariff increase policy is implemented, China will also take some actions, which will bring a oppressive effect on domestic and foreign investment and import and export, and the negative sentiment of the market will surge, which will significantly increase the cost of enterprises and adversely affect the future price trend.

Us raises interest rates to fight RRR cut, How to break the depreciation of RMB?

Recently, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar has broken the important threshold of 6.4, 6.5, 6.6 and 6.65, and the spot RMB exchange rate once approached 6.7, which makes the exchange rate market worried. To explore the reasons for the depreciation of the RMB, we can proceed from several aspects. First, the external trade war is intensifying. Weak exports due to weak trade demand will put downward pressure on the exchange rate. In addition, on June 14, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, the US dollar strengthened, and the renminbi passively fell.

On the other hand, the central bank announced on June 25 that it would implement a 0.5 percentage point reserve ratio on July 5, releasing about 700 billion yuan of funds into the market. The increase in the market money supply has intensified the trend of inflation and affected the decline of the value of the RMB. Of course, as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates into the second half of the year, the US dollar is more than half of the strong cycle, and the US dollar exchange rate may continue to be under pressure after that, and the RMB exchange rate may also stabilize.

In July, environmental protection continued to strengthen, and policies were released

At the beginning of the second half of the year, with the re-development of environmental protection and production restriction policies. On July 3, The State Council issued a notice on a three-year action plan to win the blue Sky Battle, aiming to improve air quality in the next three years, covering provinces and cities including the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and surrounding areas, Shanghai in the Yangtze River Delta region, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui provinces, and 11 cities on the Fenwei Plain. It is strictly prohibited to increase the capacity of high-energy-consuming industries such as steel and coking, and strictly implement capacity replacement. Further emphasis was placed on strengthening pollution remediation efforts in key industries.

Once the national document was issued, various places have also issued documents to follow up, on July 4, Tangshan once again showed the sword of environmental protection, and issued the notice of "Tangshan Steel, coking ultra-low emission and coal power plant deep emission reduction implementation Plan". Emphasizing the pollution problem in the production process of the steel industry, it is required to refine the sintering, iron-making and steel-making processes, so that the steel and coking industries can meet the minimum standards of the national special emission limits. The continuous production restriction policy continues to suppress the supply side of steel, making the supply side shrink again, and further constrain the expansion of high-pollution and energy-consuming industries. It is expected that regional environmental protection documents will land one after another in the near future, and the contraction of supply will be increased.

In July, the trade war cloud is approaching, the two sides are tense, the imposition of tariffs is imminent, the Chinese side has repeatedly said that it will implement countermeasures, but not before the United States, the domestic market is affected by external shocks, panic, investment and import and export are under great pressure. On the other hand, the recent weakening of the RMB has become the focus of the market. On the one hand, the date of tariffs is approaching, friction is escalating, affecting exchange rate fluctuations. The Federal Reserve raises interest rates in mid-June, the investment market is cold, and US dollar funds return, predicting that the US economy is improving, the US dollar is strengthening, and the RMB is passively declining. On the other hand, the central bank will be allowed to land, support the financing difficulties of small and micro enterprises, and release 700 billion yuan to the market, the money supply increases, exacerbates inflation, and the value of the renminbi is under pressure to fall, of course, the recent macro events are mostly, and the Federal Reserve has entered the second half of the year, the dollar will not continue to strengthen, and the renminbi will fall or not a long-term trend. The perspective turns to the limited production end, the national blue sky defense war document issued, Tangshan environmental protection and then bright sword, steel supply side contraction continues, it is expected that in the short term, environmental protection policy documents around the stage will continue, the second half of the year, environmental protection is still an important factor disturbing the steel market.

This site is for reference only and does not constitute any investment and application advice. If it involves the content of the work, copyright and other problems, please contact the staff immediately, we will delete the first time, thank you for your support!